Livestock Mixed After USDA Cuts Production Outlook — Market Talk

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1516 ET - Livestock futures on the CME settled higher Thursday, this after the USDA released its April WASDE report at noon eastern time. The report showed reduced figures for both beef and pork production views for 2026. The USDA cut its outlook for beef production by 20 million pounds to 25.86 billion pounds. Pork output was reduced by 300 million pounds to 28 billion pounds. A reduced rate of slaughter is behind the cuts made by the USDA, the agency says. Most-active live cattle futures finished up 0.7% to $2.47525 a pound, and lean hogs closed down 0.5% to $1.04175 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1455 ET - U.S. natural gas futures post back-to-back losses as the EIA storage report confirms an increase in the inventory surplus last week to 87 Bcf from 50 Bcf the week before. The surplus is "a reminder that the market is entering refill season with more cushion than it carried through much of winter," Gelber & Associates says in a note. Weather remains the main demand driver, and the outlook for the next two weeks is warm enough to keep national demand soft, "which makes it difficult for prices to hold rallies near $3/mmBtu," the firm adds. Nymex natural gas settles down 2% at $2.67/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1317 ET - Just over 60% of the nation's largest housing markets have tilted into balanced or buyer-friendly territory, Realtor.com says. Of the top 50 metros, 13 remain seller's markets, 23 are in balanced-loosening phases, 8 are buyer's markets, and 6 are in balanced-tightening territory. That means a small but notable group of markets are actually trending back toward seller advantage. The national picture is useful, Realtor.com says, but when making a real estate decision, the local details are what really matter. All 8 buyer's markets are located in the South or West, and most of the 13 seller's markets come from the Midwest and Northeast, Realtor.com says. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1221 ET - U.S. pending home sales fell 2.4% year-over-year during the four weeks ending April 5, Redfin says. That's the biggest decline in three months. Sales fell most in Providence, RI., Houston and New York. They increased most in West Palm Beach, San Francisco and San Jose. Homes are selling slowly, too: The typical home that went under contract did so in 51 days nationwide, the longest span for this time of year since 2019, Redfin says. Homebuyers are backing off because of rising mortgage rates, rising prices, and the Iran war. House hunters also took a break over Easter weekend, which fell during this 4-week period but not during last year's comparable period, according to Redfin. On the selling side, new listings dipped 2.6% year over year, the biggest decline in a month, also partly due to the impact of Easter weekend, Redfin says. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1154 ET - CBOT grain futures are mixed ahead of the incoming WASDE report from the USDA, scheduled to be released at noon eastern time Thursday. Trading has been relatively quiet amid low expectations for surprises out of the report, Matt Zeller of StoneX says in a note. "Few changes are expected today and U.S. and global supplies remain hefty," Zeller says. "2026 U.S. plantings are seen strong following a record 2025 crop, with S.A. corn thriving in the midst of those two also." Most-active CBOT corn futures are down 0.4% ahead of the report's release, while soybeans rise 0.5% and wheat falls 0.9%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1136 ET - Meta Platforms' new Muse Spark artificial-intelligence model is set up well to enable agentic commerce, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. Meta, like Google, can use its distribution and first-party data to push model adoption and improve the "human" feel of the shopping experience, they write, noting that the model already offers a shopping assistant. "This should be positive for conversion and a potential differentiator for Meta as 'trust' remains one gating factor holding back agentic purchase adoption," the analysts write. The model may not be exactly on par with the leading models, but the gap isn't as large as it could be - and the benchmarks matter less than Meta's ability to monetize its AI offerings, the analysts write. Meta is up 3.1% to $631.33. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)

1123 ET - While the U.S.-Iran cease-fire looks fragile and tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz is so far muted, the oil market appears to be pricing in a relatively quick normalization of traffic, Amarpreet Singh of Barclays says in a note. A potential delay or renewed escalation poses upside risk to Barclays's forecast for Brent to average $85 a barrel in 2026, and demand hasn't adjusted enough to cap prices at current levels if the situation persists for a few more weeks, he says. "With a further escalation seemingly off the table, at least for now, and the participants seriously talking is a positive sign that has provided some relief." Oil futures are recovering some of yesterday's losses on uncertainty about the truce, with WTI up 7% and Brent up 3.6%. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1112 ET - Canadian companies are in the early stages of adopting artificial intelligence, the technology is already replacing work with automation and having an impact on jobs. A Mercer poll of HR and talent professions at 170 Canadian businesses finds 52% are exploring but not yet committing to using AI. Yet already 35% of organizations are replacing tasks with AI, and another 42% say they are considering it. This shift in how work across the country is done is likely to affect administrative and clerical roles most, followed by corporate functions and customer service roles, Mercer says. It finds 77% of companies report no significant change in entry-level hiring volume in the past 12 months due to AI, though 11% have reduced entry-level hiring. And 29% of organizations expect a moderate reduction in workforce size, the survey shows. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)

1051 ET - Coinbase Institutional says that if bitcoin holds above $72,000 to $77,000 it "favors a breakout to $80K, however the band of strong resistance has widened so playing this could be difficult." A rejection of $72,000 favors a mean reversion to around $65,000, the firm says in a note. Should bitcoin claw its way back to $80,000, then that would be the highest its traded at since early February. Bitcoin is down 1% to $70,661, according to data from LSEG. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1045 ET - Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited despite the cease-fire, and the tension is reflected in the movement of cryptocurrencies, with bitcoin down 0.9% to $70,770, according to LSEG data. "The core disputes remain unresolved," says Colin Basco of Coinbase Institutional in a note. "In other words, we think the market has been given a relief valve, not a full reset." Other crypto assets are lower as well, although its only a small reversal from the big upticks seen Wednesday. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1034 ET - More than one-third (34.2%) of February home sellers lowered their list price, according to Redfin. That's up from 31.5% a year earlier. February home sellers who lowered their list price cut it by an average of $40,915, or 7.3%. Among all February home sellers, the average price cut was $13,463, or 2.4%. Price cuts are on the rise because it's a buyer's market. There are hundreds of thousands more home sellers in the market than buyers because buyers have been spooked by high mortgage rates, high prices and economic uncertainty. When sellers outnumber buyers, buyers can often negotiate on price because they have a lot of options to choose from, Redfin says. Redfin reported last month that relistings are on the rise as home sellers bet on a stronger spring market. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

0952 ET - The U.K.'s lack of economic growth in January disappointed, but there should be a rebound of 0.2% in GDP expansion in February, Deutsche Bank's Sanjay Raja says in a note. Some positive payback across services and industrial production is likely, and momentum ahead of the Iran conflict should keep GDP on a positive track for the first quarter, he says. Looking ahead, growth is set to temper, as higher uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East dampens spending and investment. "With sentiment weakening, we expect output to also take a hit." Raja pencils in second-quarter growth slowing to 0.2% from 0.3% in 1Q, with 2026 GDP growth at 0.7%. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260409007578:0/